Oil Outlook 2026-2035: Prices, Risks and Opportunities

Price Trends 2026 - 2035

The Short Term (2026-2027)

Major agencies such as the EIA (USA) and banks such as JP Morgan agree on a downward adjustment because production (especially from non-OPEC+ countries such as Brazil, Guyana and the USA) will exceed consumption growth.

  • Brent (2026): An average price of USD 58/b is estimated.
  • Brent (2027): Could fall to $53/ba as global inventories continue to accumulate.

The Long Term (2030-2035)

Towards the 2030s, uncertainty increases, but most models suggest a range of lateral stability:

  • Estimated range: 60 USD/b - 75 USD/b.

Demand Peak: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will peak before 2030. Once this peak is surpassed, price pressure will be mostly downward, unless severe geopolitical shocks occur.

Factors that will determine the price

For your company, it is vital to monitor these three pillars that will move the needle in the next decade:

1. The Role of OPEC+ and "Market Share"

There is a risk of a "price war" if OPEC+ countries decide to stop cutting production to regain market share against US shale oil producers. If this happens, prices could temporarily fall below $50.

2. Efficiency and Electrification

Electric Vehicles: Mass adoption in China and Europe is taking millions of barrels of gasoline demand off the table every day.

Petrochemicals: This is expected to be the only sector where oil demand will continue to grow strongly, partially offsetting the decline in transportation.

3. Extraction Costs

As oil fields mature, the cost of extracting a barrel rises. This creates a natural price floor; if it falls below $45-$50, many projects become unprofitable and production drops, pushing the price back up.

Oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term due to oversupply, but factors such as field maturity, OPEC+, and global electrification will establish a stable range between $60 and $75/b by the 2030s. Monitoring these variables will be key to making strategic decisions in the next decade.