Refineries and Inventories

• Global refining processes increased 2 mb/da to 85.7 mb/d in December 2025, before the seasonal maintenance of 1Q26.
• Refining margins fell in December, especially in Europe, due to reduced profitability of middle distillates.
• Observed global inventories increased by 75.3 mb in November , with a cumulative total of 470 mb in 2025 , reflecting oversupply, higher Chinese stockpiles and US gas liquids.
  

Prices

• Brent crude averaged $62.64/b in December , falling to its lowest level since 2021 ($60.07/b).
• In early January 2026, geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela caused a spike from $6/ba to ~$66/b, which then moderated to $64/b.
• Despite these fluctuations, prices remain $16/b below a year ago , reflecting the accumulated global surplus.

Geopolitical Factors

• Venezuela : Exports fall from 880 kb/d in December to ~300 kb/d due to US sanctions.
• Iran : Crude oil shipments fell 350 kb/d from October to November/December, with volumes accumulating at sea.
• Russia : Production and exports rebounded (+550 kb/d in December) despite attacks on infrastructure.
• Kazakhstan : Supplies limited due to attacks on infrastructure and transport.
  

Outlook 2026

• The global oversupply , driven by non-OPEC+ producers (USA, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Argentina), and excess inventories, creates a buffer sufficient to absorb the projected demand of 930 kb/d.
  

If no major disruptions occur and OPEC+ maintains its production policy, global supply is expected to increase by an additional 2.5 mb/d in 2026 , keeping prices relatively stable despite geopolitical tensions.